Research

My current research program is concerned with developing predictive models of ecosystem response to anthropogenic stress. The program includes three major components: (1) the use of mathematical, statistical and computer-simulation (including neural network) techniques to predict the risks posed by anthropogenic stresses to ecosystem structural and functional attributes; (2) testing of these predictions through field studies; (3) the use of decision-analysis tools (such as Bayesian analysis and fuzzy sets) to explore the ecological impacts of alternate ecosystem management strategies. Recent or ongoing projects include analysis of the risks posed to (i) southeastern Ontario wetland biodiversity by forest conversion and road construction on adjacent lands; (ii) native minnow communities by fish stocking and exotic gamefish introductions; (iii) furbearer populations by the quota harvesting system; (iv) sturgeon populations in the lower Saskatchewan River by commercial exploitation and hydroelectric dam operations; (v) large mammal populations in Northern Alberta and British Columbia by gas flare emissions.